Betting Guides

One of the biggest issues with the online tipster market is that it is largely unregulated. Anyone can claim to be a professional tipster, and the lack of oversight means that there is no accountability for the tips they provide.

Unverified Claims
Many tipsters make bold claims about their success rates. For example, a tipster might claim to have a 70% win rate over the last month, but they rarely provide proof of the bets they have actually placed or the long-term results of their picks. Without proper verification, these statistics are often misleading.

Marketing Tactics
Some tipsters use clever marketing to draw in customers, promising huge profits through "exclusive tips" or "secret systems." These promises often lead to disappointed bettors when the results don’t match the hype.

False Claims of Exclusive Information
Another common marketing tactic is offering "exclusive tips" that supposedly no one else has access to. These tips are often positioned as insider knowledge or secret strategies that give bettors an unbeatable edge over the bookmaker.

The idea that a single tip or "exclusive" information will consistently lead to winning bets is statistically flawed. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggests that in most sports betting markets, all publicly available information is already reflected in the odds. This means that the advantage a tipster might claim to have is often negligible, and any success they achieve is just luck or a short-term anomaly.

Follow Our System And You'll Be Rich
Perhaps the most dangerous false claim is that following a particular betting system will lead to guaranteed profits, often accompanied by a promise of becoming rich quickly. These "systems" typically involve following specific betting strategies or patterns that the tipster claims are foolproof.

There is no betting system that can guarantee profits over the long run. Most betting systems fail to account for the bookmaker’s over round. Even systems with theoretically sound strategies will fail due to variance and randomness in sports results. Research from the Sports Economics Journal shows that betting systems typically result in a loss for punters due to this unavoidable house edge. Over time, these systems often end in failure, and any profits generated are generally short-term.

Win Rate Deterioration
Many tipsters experience a sharp drop in performance once they gain a large following. For example, when a tipster’s betting style becomes public knowledge, bookmakers may adjust their odds or limit betting volume, making it more difficult to profit.

Another important factor to consider is the odds offered by the bookmakers. Even if a tipster’s predictions are accurate, punters still face the bookmaker’s over round (as explained in You Cannot Bash The Bookie). which reduces their ability to make a profit. This means that even if you follow a tipster with a reasonable win rate, you could still lose money in the long run if the odds are consistently unfavourable.

The Odds Differential
Tipsters often work with fixed odds, meaning that punters may end up placing bets after the odds have moved, or even worse, after the bookmaker has adjusted them to account for the increased market awareness of the tipster’s predictions. This is especially common when a tipster becomes popular, as bookmakers will react by shifting odds to reduce their risk.

The Over Round Impact
In many betting markets, the over round is set around 5.26%. This means that even if a tipster’s win rate is high, say 55%, it’s not enough to overcome the over round in the long run. For example, with a 55% win rate, the bettor will still lose money after accounting for the bookmaker’s commission.

To provide some concrete numbers on why most tipsters aren't worth the money, let's look at some statistics on tipster success rates:

• A 2014 study by the BBC found that the average success rate of professional tipsters was just 27%. That means 73% of tipsters were, statistically, losing bettors.

• An analysis of the Tipstrr database — a platform where tipsters can post their picks — showed that only 2% of the tipsters have consistently outperformed the market after a year of betting. Most tipsters, even those charging a premium for their services, fail to beat the bookmaker in the long term.

• University of Warwick Study (2015): A study conducted by the University of Warwick analyzed the success of 18 tipsters over a period of 12 months. The study found that only 15% of tipsters maintained a profitable betting strategy over the full year. Most tipsters had a few successful months followed by a significant downturn. This volatility makes it incredibly difficult for bettors to rely on them consistently.

• Sportsbook Insider Report (2020): An industry report from Sportsbook Insider reviewed 500 tipsters who publicly shared their betting history and found that only 3% of tipsters managed to achieve a positive ROI (return on investment) over a five-year period. The majority of tipsters had a negative ROI, making their services an expensive hobby for punters.

• The Betfair Exchange Data (2016): Data from Betfair Exchange revealed that 90% of punters who followed tipster recommendations lost money over a year, while only 10% of punters who did their own research and bet with more discipline managed to break even or make a profit. This shows how difficult it is to consistently profit by following external tips, as even the most successful punters outperform the majority of tipster-followers.

• The Reality of Bet Sizing: A critical factor often overlooked in tipster performance is bet sizing. A 2017 study by the University of California showed that punters who bet more than 5% of their bankroll on a single bet are statistically more likely to experience significant losses, regardless of the tipster's track record. Most tipsters fail to account for bet sizing or risk management, leading to greater losses for their subscribers.

While many tipsters rely on intuition or personal bias, the key to successful betting lies in data-driven insights. Club Statistico provides users easily consumable and understandable sports data and historical statistics. This helps avoid the pitfalls of tipster services, and enjoy betting as a fun, informed activity.

Data Transparency
At Club Statistico, you can view the data behind the recommendations, allowing you to make your own decisions based on solid, transparent statistics. Unlike tipsters who often hide their performance data, we provide clear, accessible information that empowers you to learn and engage with sports betting on your own terms.

Focus on Enjoyment
Instead of chasing after impossible profits, Club Statistico helps you focus on the enjoyable elements of sports betting. This platform offers insights that enhance your understanding of the odds and the statistical trends. With this information, you can enjoy betting without the unrealistic expectations that many tipsters create.

While the idea of following a tipster to “bash the bookie” is tempting. The statistics and facts make it clear that most tipsters do not offer consistent, profitable advice, and the odds are stacked against you. The majority of online tipsters fail to provide long-term value, with many making bold claims without providing proof of their performance or using marketing tactics to lure in customers.

The next time you see a floating hand waving a wad of cash on Twitter or a faceless entity charging an extortionate monthly subscription for a 90% win rate, consider keeping your hard earned money in your pocket and use Club Statistico instead.

By offering data-driven insights and access to the sports data in multiple formats, we help you understand the trends, appreciate the challenges of betting, and continue to steer you towards enjoying the process.

You might not always beat the bookmaker, but with Club Statistico, you can still make your betting experience a lot more enjoyable — and that’s what truly matters.