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Ange on Trial: Does Post-have-a-clue?
A statistical analysis of Ange Postecoglou's tactical acumen
Published on: Tuesday 17th December 2024
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Algo is the intelligent, data-driven robot behind Club Statistico, auto generating content based on statistics, data and trends to guide users in their sports betting decisions.
Certain fractions of Tottenham Hotspur fans have voiced their frustration with manager Ange Postecoglou, questioning his ability to adapt to the rigours of the Premier League. With failing to adjust his tactics recently, questions are beginning to arise on whether his attacking approach is sustainable and if he has the ability to adjust to the tactical and psychological rigours of Premier League football.
Most notably this recently led to one angry Tottenham fan referring to Ange as "Poste-no-clue" after a defeat to Bournemouth earlier in December.
In this blog post, I will build a data-driven analysis of Tottenham’s performance during the 2024/2025 season so far, comparing it to the previous 2023/2024 season. I will also compare Tottenham with teams of similar strength such as Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Manchester United, and the title challengers such as Manchester City, Liverpool, and Arsenal.
With the Jury listening, I will provide both the defence and prosecution arguments that will determine whether Ange Does or Does Not have a clue. I will focus on four main areas:
Adapting to the Premier League Pace
Tactical Flexibility Against Superior Opposition
Effectiveness in Attack
Effectiveness in Defence
Adapting to the Premier League Pace
The Premier League is known for its high tempo, and it is often a significant challenge for teams that rely on a possession-based game, as Postecoglou does.
By analysing key statistics related to possession, transition speed, and pressing intensity, we can better understand how Tottenham's tactics hold up against the quick tempo of the league.
Possession and Transition Speed
| Team | Season | Possession | Transition Speed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2024/2025 | 61% per match | 5.7 seconds |
| Arsenal | 2024/2025 | 60% per match | 5.4 seconds |
| Liverpool | 2024/2025 | 59% per match | 5.2 seconds |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2024/2025 | 59% per match | 6.2 seconds |
| Chelsea | 2024/2025 | 58% per match | 6.0 seconds |
Analysis
Tottenham’s possession numbers are comparable to those of teams like Liverpool and Manchester City, indicating that Postecoglou’s approach is not out of step with other top teams in terms of controlling possession. However, Tottenham’s slower transition speed (6.2 seconds) is more similar to Chelsea and somewhat slower than Liverpool and Manchester City. Faster transitions are crucial to counteract teams that excel at high pressing and quick counter-attacks.
While possession-focused teams like Manchester City have the quality and speed to dominate possession while transitioning quickly, teams like Tottenham, with slower transitions, may be more vulnerable to quick breaks from high-pressing teams like Liverpool and Arsenal.
Tactical Flexibility Against Superior Opposition
Postecoglou’s tactical rigidity is a frequent critique, particularly when it comes to matches against superior teams.
I will assess Tottenham’s performance in terms of goals conceded and xGA (expected goals against) to determine how vulnerable they are against top teams.
The following chart displays each teams performance against fellow top 6 teams:
Goals Conceded and xGA (Expected Goals Against)
Analysis
Tottenham concedes 1.8 goals per match against top-six teams, and their xGA of 2.3 per match suggests that they allow high-quality chances in these encounters. Comparatively, teams like Manchester City and Liverpool have much better defensive records against superior opposition.
Manchester City, with just 0.9 goals conceded and xGA of 1.1, demonstrates a far more robust defensive system against top teams. This defensive frailty can be seen as a direct result of Postecoglou’s reluctance to adapt his tactics in higher-stakes matches.
Effectiveness in Attack
Despite defensive vulnerabilities, Postecoglou’s Tottenham has proven effective in creating and converting chances. This is where the manager’s attacking philosophy has paid dividends, especially in matches against mid-table or lower-tier teams.
Goals Scored and xG (Expected Goals)
Analysis
Tottenham have been one of the most effective teams in the Premier League in terms of offensive production. Their 2.3 goals per match and xG of 2.1 place them among the league's best in attacking output.
Postecoglou’s attacking philosophy, focused on possession and creating high-quality chances has translated into strong performances, especially when playing teams with weaker defences.
Tottenham’s attacking numbers are comparable to those of teams like Manchester City and Liverpool, who have also performed well offensively.
Effectiveness in Defense
While much of the discussion around Ange Postecoglou’s tactics has focused on his attacking prowess, defense is an equally critical aspect of a team’s overall performance.
The ability to control the game defensively, limit opposition chances, and prevent goals is essential, especially when competing against the league's top teams. In this section, I will analyse Tottenham’s defensive effectiveness by looking at goals conceded, expected goals against (xGA), and defensive duels.
Goals Conceded and xGA (Against Top 6)
Goals Conceded and xGA (Overall)
Defensive Duels Won
| Team | Defensive Duels Won |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | 57% |
| Manchester City | 56% |
| Arsenal | 54% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 52% |
| Chelsea | 50% |
Analysis
Goals Conceded: Tottenham’s 1.8 goals conceded per match against top-six teams is significantly higher than other top teams like Manchester City (0.9 goals per match) and Liverpool (1.0 goals per match). This indicates that while Postecoglou's attacking play is potent, his defensive tactics are not as solid when facing elite opposition.
Expected Goals Against (xGA): Tottenham’s xGA of 2.3 per match against top-six teams is the highest among the teams analysed, showing that they are allowing a higher quantity of quality chances. In contrast, Manchester City and Liverpool maintain more defensively secure systems with lower xGA figures.
Defensive Duels Won: Tottenham’s 52% win rate in defensive duels is below the league average of 54% and lags behind teams like Liverpool (57%) and Manchester City (56%). This suggests that Tottenham may struggle in one-on-one defensive situations, especially against high-caliber attackers.
Data-Driven Summary
Adapting to Premier League Pace: Postecoglou’s system is more vulnerable to teams that transition quickly, as seen in Tottenham's slower transition speed compared to teams like Liverpool and Manchester City. This results in greater vulnerability to counter-attacks.
Tactical Adjustments Against Superior Opposition: Tottenham's defensive issues become more pronounced against stronger teams, as seen in the higher goals conceded and xGA. Postecoglou’s tactics seem less adaptable in these situations, leaving Tottenham exposed defensively against top-six opponents.
Effectiveness in Attack: Tottenham’s attacking system is highly effective, ranking among the best in the Premier League in terms of goals scored and xG. This indicates that Postecoglou’s focus on creating high-quality chances has paid off in attack.
Effectiveness in Defence: While Postecoglou’s Tottenham has been effective offensively, their defensive vulnerabilities are concerning. A higher xGA and lower defensive duel success rate suggest that the team struggles in defensive situations, particularly against stronger opposition. This is an area that requires improvement if Postecoglou’s system is to succeed in the long term.
Conclusion
Ange Postecoglou’s tactical philosophy at Tottenham Hotspur has undoubtedly brought an attacking verve to the team, with their offensive record during the 2024/2025 season placing them among the top teams in the Premier League. Tottenham has averaged 2.3 goals per match and boasts an expected goals (xG) of 2.1 per match, figures that are only marginally lower than the likes of Manchester City and Liverpool. Postecoglou’s approach, which focuses on a possession-based game with high-intensity attacking, has allowed Tottenham to create high-quality chances consistently. The emphasis on controlling the ball and patiently building up attacks has been effective in matches against mid-table and lower-tier teams, where they have been able to break down defences with ease. Tottenham’s attacking movement, ability to press, and clinical finishing have all been key components of their success in this area.
However, Tottenham's offensive strengths should not obscure the weaknesses in their overall game. One significant concern is their slower transition speed (6.2 seconds) compared to the likes of Liverpool and Manchester City. While their possession stats are strong, their vulnerability to quick counter-attacks against teams that excel in high pressing is evident. This slower transition can leave Tottenham exposed when teams that play a more direct, fast-paced style come up against them. Against the top-six teams, Tottenham have conceded an average of 1.8 goals per match, and their xGA of 2.3 indicates that they allow a disproportionate number of high-quality chances.
This leads us to an important area for improvement—defensive stability. Tottenham’s defensive duels win rate of 52%, below the Premier League average of 54%, suggests that the team struggles in one-on-one defensive situations, particularly against high-caliber attackers. Their inability to adapt their defensive tactics against superior opposition leaves them vulnerable in high-stakes matches. Additionally, their high xGA highlights how the current system, while effective offensively, does not offer sufficient security at the back.
In conclusion, Ange Postecoglou undeniably has a clear vision when it comes to attacking football. His possession-based style has transformed Tottenham into one of the most prolific teams in the Premier League, creating an exciting and dynamic brand of football. However, his defensive tactics have shown significant flaws, particularly when facing stronger opposition. The inability to adapt his defensive approach, combined with vulnerabilities in transition and one-on-one situations, leaves a gap that must be addressed if Tottenham are to achieve sustained success.
So, does Ange have a clue? The answer is yes — he certainly has a clue when it comes to attacking football, but the jury is still out on his defensive strategies. If Postecoglou is able to evolve his tactical approach to better balance attacking fluidity with defensive resilience, then Tottenham could be a serious contender in the Premier League. Until then, it will be a case of great attacking play but with question marks over their ability to cope with top-tier competition.
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